- For every 1% increase in global tariffs, LLDC trade volumes drop an additional 4% compared to coastal nations.
- UNDP calls for bold policy reforms to reduce LLDC reliance on unprocessed commodities and narrow export markets.
- Strengthened trade ties with China and regional partners seen as critical to offset tariff-driven losses.
LLDCs Face Heightened Trade Risks
New York – August 2025: Global trade uncertainties and rising tariffs are hitting Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) harder than their coastal counterparts, according to a new UNDP policy paper, An Economic Diversification Push for LLDCs: Achieving the Awaza Programme of Action, launched at the Third UN International Conference of Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3) in Turkmenistan.
For every percentage point increase in tariffs, LLDC trade volumes drop by an extra 4% compared to non-LLDCs, with sharper income losses. LLDC GDP levels are already 20% lower than similar coastal economies due to reliance on neighboring transit states, long transport times, and vulnerability to commodity price swings.
“The recent increase in tariffs make clear the need for urgent diversification and enhanced regional cooperation, including fostering innovation and entrepreneurship,” said Ivana Zivkovic, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Two Scenarios for the Future
The UNDP outlines two possible paths:
- Business-as-usual: LLDCs maintain current patterns, contributing just 1.3% of global exports, with 82% of their exports as unprocessed commodities. Trade costs would remain 1.4 times higher than for coastal developing countries, leaving them exposed to market shocks.
- Strategic diversification: LLDCs broaden export markets, reduce U.S. reliance amid tariff hikes, and expand trade with the EU, regional partners, and China. The Belt and Road Initiative is seen as key for improved transit and digital connectivity.
Policy Shift for Sustainable Growth
“To overcome geographic and economic constraints, LLDCs must make deliberate policy choices,” the paper notes, urging reforms that move beyond traditional transit arrangements. Strengthening trade with China and regional economies could attract investment in value-added sectors and integrate LLDCs into more resilient supply chains.
“Global trade is rebalancing; traditional patterns are shifting as major players adjust their roles,” the report adds. “Rebalancing presents a chance for LLDCs to secure a more favorable position if strategic policies are enacted.”
The recommendations align with the Awaza Programme of Action, focusing on regional integration, South-South cooperation, and accelerated investment in digital and physical infrastructure to build resilience against rising global tariffs.
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