Artificial intelligence is accelerating faster than the capacity of many nations to govern, adopt, or benefit from it — a dynamic the United Nations Development Programme now warns could reverse decades of progress in global development. In a new UNDP report, The Next Great Divergence, released 2 December, the agency concludes that unmanaged AI risks pushing countries further apart, widening gaps in economic performance, human capabilities, and institutional strength at a moment of significant geopolitical and economic volatility.
Asia and the Pacific — home to more than half the world’s population and the majority of global AI users — sits at the center of this transition. The region has become a major driver of AI innovation, from China’s dominance in patent filings to the rapid emergence of more than 3,100 newly funded AI companies across six economies. UNDP estimates that AI could lift annual GDP growth in the region by around two percentage points and raise productivity by as much as five percent in sectors such as health and finance. For ASEAN, the projected gains could approach one trillion dollars over the next decade.
But the warning in the UNDP report is clear: gains will not be evenly distributed, and without deliberate governance choices many countries risk being left behind entirely.
“AI is racing ahead, and many countries are still at the starting line,” said Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. “The Asia and Pacific experience highlights how quickly gaps can emerge between those shaping AI and those being shaped by it.”
The report highlights profound disparities in digital readiness. While Singapore, South Korea and China are investing heavily in computing power, national AI strategies and advanced digital skills, others are still working to secure basic digital access and foundational literacy — conditions that severely limit their ability to leverage AI safely or effectively. Countries with insufficient infrastructure, skills or governance capacity face outsized risks, including job disruption, widening gender and youth inequality, and exclusion from AI-enabled services.
Women and young people are among those facing the highest exposure. Jobs held by women are nearly twice as likely to be automated, while youth employment is already declining in roles most affected by AI. In South Asia, women remain up to 40 percent less likely than men to own a smartphone, effectively cutting them off from participating in the digital economy shaping future labor markets. Rural and Indigenous communities also risk being written out of AI systems entirely, as they remain largely absent from the datasets used to train them.
Yet the report also underscores that AI is already transforming governance and service delivery across the region. In Bangkok, the Traffy Fondue platform has processed nearly 600,000 citizen reports, helping agencies respond more quickly to public needs. Singapore’s Moments of Life service has cut administrative burden for new parents dramatically, reducing required paperwork from two hours to fifteen minutes. In Beijing, digital-twin systems are now informing urban planning and flood management, demonstrating AI’s potential to strengthen public administration when governance structures are robust.
But governance gaps remain stark. Only a small number of countries have comprehensive AI regulations in place. UNDP projects that by 2027 more than forty percent of AI-related data breaches globally may stem from misuse of generative AI tools, underscoring the urgency of stronger regulatory frameworks.
“The central fault line in the AI era is capability,” said Philip Schellekens, UNDP Chief Economist for Asia and the Pacific. “Countries that invest in skills, computing power and sound governance systems will benefit, others risk being left far behind.”
The report argues that AI’s trajectory does not have to lead to divergence. With deliberate policy action — focused on strengthening digital infrastructure, building inclusive datasets, supporting workforce transitions, and establishing governance systems rooted in equity and transparency — AI can enhance development outcomes rather than erode them. But absent such action, the cumulative effect of economic disruption, skills gaps, exclusion, and governance failures could reverse half a century of convergence between rich and poorer nations.
Ultimately, the Next Great Divergence is not presented as an inevitability, but as a warning. The future of global equality in the age of AI will be determined less by the speed of innovation than by the readiness of institutions, the inclusiveness of digital systems, and the policy choices governments make now.
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