As negotiations intensified inside COP30’s vast plenary halls in Belém, the future map of global climate diplomacy came sharply into focus. Ethiopia clinched the hosting rights for COP32 in 2027, marking the continent’s next major climate summit and elevating Addis Ababa as an emerging diplomatic hub. But the decision that should have anchored the 2026 summit remains stalled. Australia and Türkiye are locked in a standoff over the COP31 COP32 host decision, creating one of the most consequential geopolitical deadlocks the UN climate system has faced in years.
The contrast could not be more striking: while Ethiopia prepares for what leaders describe as “the African COP” of this decade, the Western Europe and Others Group has yet to produce a unified position for COP31. And with the deadline looming at the close of COP30, the risk of defaulting to Bonn grows by the day.
Ethiopia Secures COP32 With Continental Backing
Ethiopia’s ambassador to Brazil, Leulseged Tadese Abebe, confirmed the news before a full plenary: Addis Ababa has been endorsed by the African Group of Negotiators to host COP32.
“We are deeply grateful for the trust and confidence bestowed on the Ethiopian people and government,” he told delegates. “COP32 will play a major role in guiding climate action in this critical decade.”
The decision is now considered a formality awaiting final adoption. It ends months of competition with Nigeria, which launched its bid six months earlier but ultimately lost support after regional consultations. Campaigners interviewed at the Africa Climate Summit said Ethiopia held a significant advantage: stronger infrastructure, deeper diplomatic experience, and the credibility gained from hosting the continent’s major climate gathering earlier this year.
Ethiopia has already begun technical and logistical planning to ensure the summit is inclusive and representative.
“Every voice will be fully represented through an inclusive process,” the Ethiopian delegation stated. Civil society groups welcomed the outcome. Rukiya Khamis, Africa senior organiser with 350.org, said COP32 is “an opportunity to elevate Africa’s climate priorities, solutions and leadership.”
With infrastructure growth outpacing most African economies, Addis Ababa has become a major seat for diplomacy — home to the African Union, UNECA, and an expanding cluster of development institutions. For many officials gathered in Belém, the COP32 decision reflects the continent’s ambition to shift from agenda-taker to agenda-setter.
A Paralysing Standoff Over COP31
If Ethiopia’s victory was decisive, the race for COP31 is anything but. Australia and Türkiye remain deadlocked despite months of negotiations, bilateral outreach, and group-level mediation. Both nations took to the COP30 plenary floor this week to reaffirm their bids — a rare public signal of how entrenched positions have become.
Australia’s offer is built on a partnership with Pacific Island nations, which remain among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. Backed by the Umbrella Group — including the UK, Japan, and Norway — Australia argues that a Pacific COP would place frontline voices at the center of global decision-making. The bid is deeply tied to Australia’s ambition to recast itself as a “renewable energy superpower,” pivoting away from fossil exports into green hydrogen, critical minerals, and clean industrial supply chains.
The stakes are high. “Hosting COP is absolutely crucial for Australia’s economic future,” said Wesley Morgan of the University of New South Wales. EY’s Net Zero Centre adds that a COP presidency would boost investment attractiveness. For the Pacific, climate change is existential. Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern, now a special envoy, reminded delegates: “The slogan from the Pacific is ‘1.5 to stay alive.’”
Türkiye, meanwhile, has refused to step aside. Its delegate told COP30 that Türkiye aims to lead an “inclusive, innovative and equitable climate action platform,” pointing to its 2053 net-zero target and desire to elevate climate finance for developing countries. After withdrawing a bid for COP26, Ankara has said it will not withdraw again.
Several countries quietly explore compromise options. One possibility is splitting the hosting — Türkiye leading the Leaders Summit and Australia presiding over negotiations — but neither capital has signaled willingness to concede.
The consequences are increasingly visible. Germany, which would be obligated to host if the stalemate continues, has been explicit:
“We would have to, but we do not want to,” said Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary in the Environment Ministry.
The Diplomatic Risks Ahead
The impasse has broader implications. COP presidencies shape the agenda, steer negotiations, and mobilize finance. A stalled COP31 decision risks weakening the diplomatic arc intended to run from Belém to Addis Ababa. It also threatens momentum at a moment when implementation — not new commitments — is the core task facing governments.
Climate diplomacy analysts warn that if Bonn is forced to host by default, Pacific nations lose critical visibility, Türkiye loses its chance to lead, and Australia loses a vital platform for economic transformation.
The COP30 Presidency has appointed a facilitator to resolve the standoff. But as talks stretch into the final days, senior negotiators privately acknowledge the difficulty of finding a face-saving solution.
In Belém, the politics of COP31 remain uncertain. The trajectory of COP32, however, is now firmly set — and Addis Ababa is preparing to shape one of the most consequential climate summits of the decade.
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