Belém — November 2025
Rain hung over Belém’s waterfront as negotiators pushed through the final hours of COP30, closing two intense weeks with a package of decisions that will influence climate policy, cross-border trade and corporate strategy for the next decade. The outcomes delivered sweeping commitments on finance, adaptation and just transition, yet stopped short of adopting binding language on fossil fuels, leaving a structural gap at the heart of global climate governance.
Finance architecture expands as pressure builds toward 2035
The centrepiece of the COP30 final text is a new financial trajectory that raises annual climate financing to at least 1.3 trillion dollars by 2035. Developed countries agreed to remain on a pathway toward mobilising three hundred billion dollars per year, with an emphasis on grants and concessional lending. A new work programme will examine finance flows under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement, creating heightened reporting obligations and expanding transparency requirements across both public and private channels.
Adaptation finance received one of the strongest political signals of the summit. Countries endorsed a commitment to triple funding by 2035, potentially directing one hundred and twenty billion dollars annually to resilience programmes. Negotiators also reaffirmed the obligation to double adaptation finance by 2025, keeping pressure on major donors.
Adaptation enters a new era of measurement and accountability
COP30 delivered the first full indicator framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, establishing a measurement system that reaches into every major sector. Countries must now report progress on water security, food systems, health, ecosystems, infrastructure and poverty, creating a unified lens for tracking global resilience. The Baku Adaptation Roadmap remains in motion, though its operational details will be shaped at upcoming sessions.
For many negotiators, the indicators represent the most significant governance advance since the Paris Agreement. They embed adaptation inside the machinery of national planning and signal that countries will face growing scrutiny over how quickly resilience measures are implemented.
Just transition gains its strongest-ever mandate
The Belém Action Mechanism introduced the most comprehensive COP language to date on Indigenous rights, worker protections and biodiversity. A newly adopted just transition mechanism will support cooperation, technical assistance and capacity-building, aiming to protect workers and communities affected by the energy transition. The decision formalises a growing consensus that climate policy must integrate economic adjustment, local protections and rights-based commitments.
Trade enters the climate arena for the first time
One of the most consequential shifts in the final text is the inclusion of trade as a formal pillar of climate cooperation. A three-year dialogue will examine the interaction between trade measures and climate ambition, including carbon border adjustments and unilateral policies affecting global supply chains. Three dedicated dialogues in Bonn will explore these issues ahead of COP31, marking a new phase of scrutiny over carbon-intensive goods and the competitiveness implications of climate policy.
Voluntary initiatives signal ambition but carry no legal force
Several high-profile announcements remained outside the ratified text. Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility seeking one hundred and twenty-five billion dollars, supported by five and a half billion in early pledges from Norway, Germany, Indonesia, France and Brazil. Seven countries signed a commitment to pursue near-zero methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector, while Brazil and the United Kingdom created the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator with twenty-five million dollars to cut methane in thirty developing countries.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago announced two voluntary roadmaps on deforestation and transitioning away from fossil fuels. These initiatives will convene producing and consuming countries, with outcomes planned for COP31. Participation is voluntary and not part of the binding decisions.
The missing elements define the political fault lines ahead
Despite the support of more than eighty countries, the final Mutirão decision did not include explicit language on transitioning away from fossil fuels. The phrase was referenced as part of the legacy of COP28 in Dubai but was not adopted in the Belém package. Nor did the final text include a binding roadmap on fossil fuel phase-out or any concrete commitment to eliminate deforestation.
The binding language instead centres on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions and voluntary collaboration to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Enhanced national plans submitted outside COP30 included the United Kingdom’s pledge to cut emissions by eighty-one percent by 2035 and Brazil’s commitment to a sixty-seven percent reduction by the same year.
“The agreed Global Mutirão falls short of what one might hope for, though not far from what we could realistically expect in the current geopolitical climate. It ended up like a Brazilian feijoada: everything thrown into the pot, simmering slowly, rich in flavour but nowhere near ready when you actually need it.
Where the flavours are strong: Countries agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035. It arrives five years later than many had pushed for, but it is still an important signal for climate-vulnerable nations already facing mounting losses. The standout positive is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility. It is the most concrete institutional outcome of Belém and could be transformative for tropical forest protection. Yet the funding committed so far is limited, and without an agreed deforestation roadmap even this win sits on uncertain ground. Multilateralism also showed signs of life. Several countries stepped up where the US (and partly China) did not. The EU, Colombia and others created real momentum, and there was a noticeable sense of determination among many negotiators to keep pushing.
Where substance is missing: The text leans heavily on inactive wording. For a COP that was to be all about implementation, it is unfortunate that two-thirds of the verbs were inactive. The silence on fossil fuels remains the major failure. We cannot claim to keep 1.5°C alive while avoiding any reference to the main driver of emissions. This omission weakens the market and policy signals needed for an orderly and just transition.
What next: Multilateralism is moving too slowly, so progress will continue to come from coalitions, regulation and capital. The ‘adaptation caipirinhas’ offered in Belém cannot hide how far we still are from what is needed. In the run-up to COP31 in Türkiye, voluntary fossil-fuel and deforestation roadmaps will be essential to rebuild direction and credibility. Measurement will be key to ensure it is clear where progress is being made and where it is not. With politics still lagging, the private sector will have an important role, and investors will need to rely more than ever on transparent, decision-grade sustainability information to distinguish genuine transition leaders from those still betting on delay.”
Lorenzo Saa, Chief Sustainability Officer, Clarity AI
Looking toward COP31
COP30 exposed the gap between rapid expansion of the climate finance and adaptation agenda and the political constraints surrounding fossil fuel commitments. With eighty-nine percent of countries planning to use Article 6 carbon market mechanisms and Brazil advancing new domestic carbon legislation, market integration is accelerating even as core mitigation language remains unsettled.
COP31 will now determine whether the unresolved elements of Belém become diplomatic breakthroughs or long-term structural weaknesses in the global climate regime.
RELATED STORIES:
Follow SDG News on LinkedIn
