Key Points:
- Finance Focus: COP29 in Azerbaijan will spotlight mobilizing substantial financial support for climate action.
- Critical Challenges: Global temperature records and ongoing conflicts present significant obstacles.
- Carbon Market Rules: Finalizing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement aims to boost transparency and efficiency in carbon markets.
Baku Takes Center Stage for COP29
Azerbaijan is set to host COP29, making it the focal point of climate action discussions for the next two weeks. This event marks another pivotal moment for addressing climate change as world leaders, top financiers, and industry experts converge in Baku to strategize on slowing temperature rises and pushing for a greener global economy.
COP29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev stated, the goal is to “enhance ambition and enable action.” However, obstacles persist, including regional conflicts that could derail consensus, a cornerstone of the summit’s success.
Finance as the Heart of COP29
Azerbaijan’s agenda places finance at the core of climate discussions. COP29 CEO Elnur Soltanov remarked, “Whether we like it or not, finance will be at the core of this year’s climate negotiations… Finance is there to enable action.”
Central to the talks will be the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), designed to replace the unmet $100 billion annual climate finance pledge from 2009. The financial demands for effective climate action now run into the trillions. Addressing the gap in adaptation funding and boosting the Loss and Damage Fund—only partially funded at $700 million last year—are also top priorities.
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell urged action, stating, “International climate finance must grow up, step up, and scale up, to meet this moment.”
Worsening Global Temperatures
Climate scientists report worsening conditions, with 2023-2024 marked as the hottest year on record at 1.64°C above pre-industrial levels. Heat records shattered in 19 countries, including Laos and Cambodia, as CO2 and methane levels soared. Extreme weather has already cost an estimated $41 billion in damages, underlining the urgency for coordinated adaptation and mitigation funding at COP29.
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Fossil Fuels and Economic Reliance
Azerbaijan’s presidency at COP29 introduces a unique paradox. While leading the push away from fossil fuels, Azerbaijan’s economy heavily depends on oil and gas, comprising 90% of its exports. Previous COP summits have struggled to define clear stances on fossil fuel phase-out, leaving unresolved issues for this year’s meeting.
The European Union previously noted, “30 years to get to the beginning of the end for fossil fuels.”
Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing wars, especially in the Middle East, Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar, pose a significant challenge to cooperative climate efforts. Dr. Jennifer Allan of Cardiff University highlighted, “Resources are going to defence budgets and attention is anywhere but climate.” Emissions from military conflicts, such as those in Gaza, have been substantial, with potential CO2 emissions exceeding those of many nations.
Florian Krampe of SIPRI emphasized, “Countries affected by conflict are also highly exposed to climate change, making life… incredibly difficult.”
Baku’s organizers are pushing for a “truce COP,” hoping to coincide with a month-long global ceasefire and emphasizing peace as a new theme.
Advancing Carbon Market Rules
Article 6, focused on global carbon markets, has remained unresolved since the 2015 Paris Agreement. COP29 aims to finalize its framework, facilitating transparent buying and selling of carbon credits. Elnur Soltanov pointed out the need for comprehensive mechanisms, as existing gaps have hindered funding and opened doors to ineffective, sometimes misleading schemes.
Singapore’s pilot programs with Papua New Guinea and Ghana demonstrate potential pathways forward. The involvement of delegation heads signals the urgency to establish a centralised and effective carbon market system.
COP29 in Baku promises to be a critical juncture, testing global commitment to financing climate action, mitigating conflict impacts, and streamlining carbon market operations.
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