Key Impact Points:
- Trump’s new tariffs will minimally affect Asian solar imports due to pre-existing tariffs.
- Significant duty increases from ongoing investigations may raise panel costs closer to US levels.
- US solar manufacturing remains heavily dependent on imported cells, raising costs and project risks.
Limited Tariff Impact
The global tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump last week will have minimal effects on Asian solar imports, according to a recent report from BMI, a Fitch Solutions consultancy unit.
BMI expects only a slight decrease in solar imports, primarily due to pre-existing tariffs and heavy US dependence on imported solar cells.
Heavy Preliminary Duties
An ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation has already imposed substantial preliminary tariffs on solar cell imports from Southeast Asia, significantly increasing costs:
- Thailand: 71%
- Cambodia: 254%
- Malaysia: 22%
- Vietnam: 274%
If finalized, these tariffs could raise the cost of Chinese solar panels by approximately $0.10-$0.15 per watt, nearing US module pricing.
Domestic Manufacturers Optimistic
US solar manufacturer T1 Energy expressed support for Trump’s latest tariffs. T1 anticipates accelerated growth as it expands domestic production capacity.
“The tariffs introduced this week dovetail with our strategy, and the anticipated financial benefits should accelerate our plans to expand T1’s U.S. solar value chain,” said Daniel Barcelo, T1’s chairman of the Board and CEO.
T1 Energy is building a 5GW solar cell plant in Austin, Texas, and has already produced 220MW of modules early in 2025.
Rising Costs and Risks
Despite optimism from some domestic manufacturers, BMI highlighted ongoing challenges. US solar manufacturing still heavily relies on imported solar cells due to limited domestic production capabilities. Combined with tariff uncertainties and funding delays from the Inflation Reduction Act, manufacturing costs are expected to increase further.
Industry insiders echoed similar concerns, emphasizing potential disruptions to the domestic solar supply chain.
BMI forecasts that US solar buyers will initially absorb price hikes, potentially slowing the pace of solar PV installations.
“Since the US’s manufacturing capacity is insufficient to meet demand for solar, wind, and grid components, we do expect that costs will increase for developers due to the tariffs which will now be imposed upon these components,” BMI noted.
This scenario could lead to increased project expenses and delays, as developers reassess financing strategies.
“Overall, while the power sector may not be as adversely affected as others, these tariffs still pose further headwinds to a sector which has been badly affected since Trump’s return to office,” concluded BMI.
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