The race to become the next United Nations Secretary-General is taking shape, but it is far from settled. With António Guterres due to step down at the end of 2026, the contest is emerging as one of the most consequential leadership decisions in modern multilateral history. It is also still open. Senior diplomats and UN officials stress that there remains ample time for additional leaders, including sitting heads of government and senior multilateral figures, to throw their hats into the ring.
That uncertainty reflects both opportunity and risk. The next UN Secretary-General will inherit an institution under extraordinary strain, facing budget shortfalls, political skepticism, and open hostility from some of its most powerful member states. At the same time, the race carries historic significance. For the first time, several leading contenders are women, raising the prospect of breaking an 80-year precedent of male leadership at the UN’s top post.
The Contenders, So Far
A diverse slate of candidates has already begun to crystallize, each representing a different theory of what the UN needs next.
Michelle Bachelet (Chile)
A former two-term president of Chile and a veteran of the UN system, Bachelet brings deep institutional experience from her leadership of UN Women and her tenure as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. With regional backing already in place, she represents continuity with the UN’s human rights and multilateral traditions. Her election would make history as the first woman to lead the organization.
Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica)
Currently UN Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, Grynspan is viewed as a technocrat with a strong grasp of development finance, trade, and inequality. Supporters see her as someone who understands both the ambitions of the Global South and the internal mechanics of the UN system. Like Bachelet, her candidacy carries historic weight on gender representation.
Mia Mottley (Barbados)
Praised globally for her outspoken leadership on climate change, debt relief, and the vulnerabilities of small island states, Mottley embodies a more activist vision of the UN Secretary-General role. Her appeal across the Global South is significant, but so too are questions about how far such a bold agenda can advance within a system constrained by great-power politics.
Rafael Grossi (Argentina)
As Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi brings crisis diplomacy and security credentials at a moment of heightened geopolitical tension. His profile reflects the argument that stability and risk management may matter as much as transformation in the next phase of UN leadership.
Diplomats caution that this list is not final. The UN has explicitly encouraged a broad and competitive field, and past races have seen influential candidates emerge later in the process, often reshaping political calculations.
How the Job Is Really Decided
Despite efforts to modernize the process, the selection of a UN Secretary-General remains one of the most political exercises in global governance.
Formally, candidates are nominated by member states and submit vision statements and biographies. They then participate in public interactive dialogues hosted by the General Assembly, a relatively recent reform designed to introduce transparency and allow governments and civil society to scrutinize their ideas.
The decisive phase, however, still takes place behind closed doors.
The 15-member Security Council conducts a series of secret straw polls to gauge support. To advance, a candidate must secure at least nine affirmative votes and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members. Only after the Security Council agrees on a single name does the General Assembly formally appoint the UN Secretary-General.
In practice, this means that no matter how compelling a candidate’s vision, it cannot succeed without navigating the preferences of the world’s most powerful capitals.
The United States Factor
That reality looms especially large in this race. Candidates who seek to champion a stronger UN, expand development finance, or push transformative reforms for the Global South must carefully navigate the risk of a veto from the United States.
Washington’s posture toward the UN has grown increasingly skeptical. Funding cuts, sharp criticism of UN agencies, and broader political attacks on multilateral institutions have reshaped the landscape. For candidates, the challenge is acute: how to advocate meaningful change without crossing political red lines that could end their candidacy before it reaches the General Assembly.
The paradox is stark. The world is demanding a Secretary-General who can reimagine multilateralism for a fractured era, yet the system still rewards caution, consensus, and political survival.
History on the Line
If any of the women currently in the race are elected, it would mark a watershed moment for the United Nations and for global governance more broadly. Beyond symbolism, it would signal a shift in who is seen as legitimate to lead at the highest level of international diplomacy.
But the challenges awaiting the next UN Secretary-General are structural, not symbolic. They include chronic underfunding, geopolitical paralysis, and declining trust in multilateral solutions at precisely the moment when global cooperation is most needed.
What Comes Next
More candidates may yet enter the race, alliances will shift, and the quiet arithmetic of Security Council politics will intensify. What is clear is that this is not merely a leadership transition. It is a stress test for the UN itself.
Whoever ultimately emerges will not just inherit the organization. They will inherit its contradictions, its constraints, and its unfinished promise.
Whether the next UN Secretary-General can do more than manage decline, and instead restore confidence in multilateralism, may define the UN’s relevance for the next generation.
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