INSIDERS EDITION: Trump Administration Escalates Pressure on Global Climate Governance

August 29, 2025

9:22 am

With the world already confronting accelerating climate disasters, the Trump Administration has intensified its campaign to roll back multilateral environmental agreements. The strategy is unsettling allies, emboldening oil producers, and leaving fragile negotiations in disarray just weeks before the United Nations General Assembly.

Oil Politics and Trade Coercion

The administration’s latest moves highlight a strategy centered on energy dominance and geopolitical leverage. Earlier this month, President Trump imposed a sweeping 50 percent tariff on Indian goods in retaliation for New Delhi’s decision to continue importing discounted Russian oil. The action jolted one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and underscored Washington’s willingness to weaponize trade in pursuit of its energy priorities.

Diplomatic sources say the administration has also pressed Gulf states to sustain high levels of oil output, challenging the global momentum for reducing fossil fuel dependence. Leaders from climate-vulnerable nations warn this approach risks delaying the transition to clean energy and locking in a cycle of escalating emissions.

Rejecting Maritime Carbon Regulation

In mid-August, the administration issued a joint statement through the Departments of Energy, State, Commerce, and Transportation, rejecting the International Maritime Organization’s proposed “Net-Zero Framework.” The plan, widely supported by European and Asian partners, aimed to place a global carbon price on shipping, one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize.

The Trump Administration declared it would not accept measures that “increase costs for our citizens, energy providers, shipping companies and their customers, or tourists.” The rejection undercut one of the most promising avenues for global emissions reductions and set up a confrontation with nations determined to move forward.

Collapse of the Global Plastics Treaty

The administration’s approach is also reverberating in negotiations beyond energy. On August 15, talks in Geneva aimed at creating the world’s first binding plastics pollution treaty collapsed without agreement. The deadlock centered on whether to cap global plastic production and regulate toxic chemical additives, measures fiercely resisted by oil-producing states.

Without a treaty, the plastics crisis continues unabated, leaving oceans, rivers, and communities across the world to bear the costs of unchecked waste. The absence of consensus represents a serious setback in efforts to regulate one of the fastest-growing environmental threats.

A Fractured Environmental Order

Together, these developments illustrate how multilateral environmental governance is unraveling under pressure. The Paris Agreement has already lost the United States for the second time. Sector-specific accords, from plastics to shipping, are faltering. Financial alliances meant to align banks with net-zero pathways are retreating in the face of U.S. political influence.

For many nations, especially small island states and climate-vulnerable economies, the erosion of global environmental institutions represents not only a diplomatic crisis but also a direct threat to survival.

The UN General Assembly: A Crucial Test

When world leaders convene in New York in September for the UN General Assembly, climate governance will dominate discussions. Allies are expected to push back against U.S. obstruction, while vulnerable nations are likely to demand accountability. Whether the gathering produces renewed commitments or exposes irreparable divisions could determine the credibility of the multilateral system.

Diplomats privately concede that the Trump Administration’s tactics may dominate conversations, forcing other nations to decide whether to confront Washington directly or seek workarounds through coalitions and regional compacts.

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Looking Ahead to COP30

The timing is particularly consequential. In November, the world will gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, regarded as the most important climate conference since Paris. Nations face mounting pressure to enhance their 2035 emissions targets. The Trump Administration’s resistance to global climate frameworks will weigh heavily on the talks, potentially emboldening other reluctant states and weakening trust in the process.

Yet it may also galvanize a counter-movement. European nations, small island developing states, and a growing bloc of climate-vulnerable countries are signaling their intent to arrive in Brazil with a unified agenda focused on accelerating the clean energy transition, establishing stronger rules on fossil fuel phase-out, and filling the vacuum left by Washington.

Whether COP30 becomes a moment of global renewal or one of deepening division may depend on what unfolds first in New York. For now, the Trump Administration’s approach has set the stage for a season of confrontation that will test not only the world’s climate commitments but the very future of multilateral cooperation.

SDG News Insider: What You Need to Know

For governments preparing for the UN General Assembly in September and COP30 in Brazil this November, the Trump Administration’s recent moves are more than tactical maneuvers. They represent a deliberate strategy to reshape global environmental governance—and officials across capitals need to factor this into their planning.

1. Expect sharper divides at UNGA.

Washington’s rejection of shipping decarbonization, its role in the collapse of plastics treaty talks, and its use of tariffs against India signal that climate diplomacy is being folded into a wider geopolitical posture. Delegations arriving in New York should anticipate that climate will surface not only in high-level speeches, but in behind-the-scenes bilateral negotiations and side meetings—where U.S. officials may press partners to mute or delay ambitious targets.

2. Small coalitions will matter more.

In the face of U.S. obstruction, regional and issue-based coalitions are becoming the most credible avenues for progress. The High Ambition Coalition, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), and new blocs of climate-vulnerable countries will be looking to expand influence. Governments that want to see progress at COP30 would do well to align early with these groups, signaling intent and shaping their agendas before Belém.

3. Trade and climate are now inseparable.

The Trump Administration’s tariffs on India demonstrate that energy politics and trade policy are being fused. Governments should prepare for climate stances to trigger trade consequences, positive or negative. For developing economies, this could mean added pressure in supply chains; for advanced economies, it may require recalibrating climate ambition against risks of U.S. retaliation. Expect this trend to intensify leading into COP30.

4. The financial system is wobbling.

With major banks stepping back from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance under U.S. pressure, climate finance pathways are becoming less predictable. Governments seeking capital for resilience and energy transition projects should double down on alternative financing platforms – multilateral development banks, blended finance initiatives, and regional green banks – rather than assuming private financial coalitions will fill the gap.

5. The opportunity at COP30.

If UNGA exposes fractures, COP30 offers a stage for governments to demonstrate leadership. Brazil, as host, has the potential to rally an ambitious bloc, but it will need visible support from a wide array of governments. Officials should prepare now to arrive in Belém with concrete announcements—whether national pledges, cross-border partnerships, or financing commitments—that can counterbalance U.S. resistance and reassert the credibility of the multilateral system.

Bottom line

The Trump Administration’s current trajectory is forcing governments to rethink where and how progress on climate will be made. Officials should treat UNGA not as a forum for incrementalism, but as a staging ground for the high-stakes battles of COP30. Those who arrive with clear strategies and coalition ties will shape the narrative. Those who wait risk being sidelined.

Inside Track: Navigating the Trump Administration’s Climate Disruption

Takeaway: The Trump Administration’s latest moves—rejecting global shipping decarbonization, contributing to the collapse of plastics treaty talks, and weaponizing tariffs in energy diplomacy—signal a deliberate reshaping of global climate governance. For governments preparing for UNGA and COP30, this is no longer business as usual: progress will hinge on coalition-building, trade-aware diplomacy, and bold positioning to fill the leadership vacuum.