Climate diplomacy rarely begins where climate impacts are most acute. In the lead-up to COP31, it will.
Fiji will host the official pre-COP31 meeting in October 2026, while Tuvalu will convene a special leaders’ component under an agreement reached between Australia and Turkey. The Pacific Islands Forum confirmed the arrangement following a political consultative process among member states.
Geography becomes signal.
From hosting to leverage
Australia and Turkey had been locked in a prolonged contest over hosting rights for COP31 before agreeing to a split structure. Turkey will host the main summit, Australia will lead negotiations, and Pacific states will stage the pre-summit phase.
Authority is distributed.
Pre-COP meetings are not ceremonial gatherings. They are the arena where draft texts are stress-tested, bloc alignments clarified and financial expectations signaled before the formal conference begins.
Language hardens early.
By anchoring this preparatory phase in Fiji and Tuvalu, Small Island Developing States gain proximity to the drafting rhythm that often determines which priorities survive into final negotiations.
Process shapes outcome.
Vulnerability as agenda frame
Low-lying Pacific islands face rising sea levels and intensifying climate pressures that have already forced some communities to relocate. Hosting the pre-COP phase situates those realities at the front end of diplomatic sequencing rather than as appeals delivered from the margins during plenary sessions.
Exposure becomes architecture.
Jeremiah Manele, chair of the Pacific Islands Forum and Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, described the pre-COP as an opportunity for vulnerable nations to lead and for larger powers to listen. Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong framed the meetings as a chance for the global community to witness Pacific climate impacts firsthand.
Narrative reinforces positioning.
SIDS in procedural control
For SIDS, influence at COP is often mediated through coalition-building and moral authority. Procedural control of early meetings introduces a different form of leverage: shaping tone before bargaining lines crystallize.
The perimeter moves outward.
Palau will also host a special climate event during the 55th Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting, reinforcing a coordinated regional sequencing ahead of COP31. The clustering of meetings across Pacific states consolidates visibility at a moment when negotiating architecture is still fluid.
Regional alignment tightens.
The early test
Pre-COP sessions frequently narrow negotiating brackets before ministers arrive at the main summit. Adaptation finance, resilience mechanisms and ambition signals are often framed in these early exchanges.
Substance precedes spectacle.
If Pacific states use the preparatory stage to consolidate a unified SIDS platform, vulnerability may translate into agenda discipline before COP31 formally opens in Turkey. If major emitters resist early alignment, the meetings could instead expose the structural limits of embedding frontline experience into global negotiation frameworks.
The summit will convene elsewhere. The framing begins in the Pacific.
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