Key Impact Points:
- Projected Growth: U.S. electricity demand is forecast to rise by 128 GW, a 15.8% increase by 2029, driven by data centers and manufacturing.
- Regional Drivers: Six regions, including Texas and PJM Interconnection areas, are expected to contribute significantly, with Texas alone adding 43 GW.
- Sectoral Insights: Data centers, particularly for AI applications, are the largest growth drivers, with concentrated impacts in select areas like Northern Virginia and Dallas.
U.S. Electricity Demand Forecast
Electricity demand in the U.S. is set to increase significantly, with Grid Strategies projecting a 15.8% rise—128 GW—by 2029. This represents a 456% surge in load growth forecasts over two years, driven by booming data centers and manufacturing industries.
“We are now looking at the latter half of this decade showing 3% annual average load growth. … We haven’t seen that kind of load growth since the 1980s,” said John Wilson, Vice President of Grid Strategies, during a media call.
Regional and Sectoral Growth
The report highlights that six regions will dominate the growth, particularly:
- Texas: Adding 43 GW by 2029.
- PJM Interconnection: Adding 30 GW by 2029, reflecting an 8.1% growth.
- Other Regions: Georgia Power’s territory, the Pacific Northwest, and areas under the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and Southwest Power Pool.
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Data centers are expected to drive much of this growth, especially in concentrated hubs like Northern Virginia, Dallas, and Atlanta.
“Data center load growth is the single largest component of growth in utility load forecasts,” the report noted.
Uncertainties in Forecasts
The report also acknowledges uncertainties, particularly concerning adoption rates of electrification technologies like EVs and hydrogen.
“While some of the additional growth merely reflects corrections to last year’s incomplete forecast update, major changes have occurred in several regions,” the report stated.
Wilson added, “It is a very concentrated situation here, with a lot of load growth in very small regions, and the rest of the country seeing still substantial load growth by recent standards — but not this explosive load growth.”
Future Considerations
While manufacturing and data centers lead near-term demand, transportation electrification and hydrogen adoption may become significant drivers post-2030. However, concerns over the sustainability of data center growth remain.
“Data center developers may have such a large appetite for growth that their projects could use up any and all currently-unused grid capacity over the next five to ten years,” the report warned.
This surge in electricity demand underscores the growing strain on the U.S. power grid, calling for targeted planning to address concentrated regional and sectoral impacts.
