The copper-rich nation has made significant progress stabilizing its economy after a historic debt crisis, but Thursday’s election will test whether voters believe those gains have improved everyday life — and whether Zambia can convert rising global demand for critical minerals into broader development.
LUSAKA — Zambians head to the polls Thursday in an election that will determine whether President Hakainde Hichilema wins a second five-year term after overseeing a major debt restructuring and period of economic stabilization, while facing persistent concerns over living costs and political freedoms.
Hichilema, 64, faces 13 challengers, with Brian Mundubile, 55, leader of the opposition Tonse Alliance, widely viewed as his strongest rival. Roughly 8 million Zambians are registered to vote in presidential, parliamentary and local elections, with a candidate required to win more than 50% of the presidential vote to avoid a runoff.
The election comes five years after Hichilema took office following Zambia’s 2020 sovereign default, the first in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Zambia has restructured more than $12 billion in debt owed to foreign governments and private creditors, while inflation has fallen and the kwacha has strengthened.
The progress is increasingly visible in national economic indicators. The International Monetary Fund reported in May that inflation had returned to the Bank of Zambia’s target range, foreign-exchange reserves had strengthened and restructuring agreements covered most of the debt targeted under the process.
But the election is testing a more difficult question: whether those improvements have translated into gains voters can feel.
Stabilization Meets the Cost of Living
For many households, that transition remains incomplete.
Food and energy costs remain a major concern, even as inflation has declined and the currency has stabilized. Critics of the government argue that improved macroeconomic conditions have yet to translate into comparable improvements in household purchasing power and living standards.
Hichilema has responded by emphasizing investment in schools, health facilities, roads and employment while promising further action to reduce the cost of living.
The African Development Bank estimates that extreme poverty remains widespread, highlighting the gap between stronger national indicators and conditions experienced by many households.
The economic outlook is also positive but uncertain. The African Development Bank expects continued expansion supported by mining, agriculture and energy recovery, while the IMF has taken a more cautious view as weaker mining output, energy constraints and external risks weigh on growth.
Taken together, the picture is mixed: Zambia has made measurable progress restoring stability after its debt crisis, but the next government will face pressure to convert that progress into more broadly shared gains.
Copper Raises the Economic Stakes
The election also comes as Zambia’s importance to global critical-mineral supply chains is growing.
Hichilema has set a target of increasing annual copper production to 3 million metric tons by 2031, more than triple recent levels.
Copper is essential to electricity grids, electric vehicles, renewable-energy infrastructure and expanding digital systems. Rising global demand has therefore increased international attention on Zambia, one of the world’s major copper producers.
China is the country’s leading foreign investor, according to the Associated Press, with extensive interests in copper and cobalt. The United States has also increased its focus on Zambia’s critical minerals as Washington seeks to diversify supply chains.
For Zambia, however, the development opportunity extends beyond extracting more ore.
Greater investment in power generation, transport, processing and related industries could allow the country to capture more of the economic value generated by its mineral wealth while creating jobs and reducing dependence on raw commodity exports.
That will be one of the most consequential economic tests for whichever government emerges from Thursday’s vote.
Political Freedoms Draw Scrutiny
Economic performance is not the election’s only dividing line.
Civil-society organizations have also accused Hichilema’s administration of using state institutions and legal changes in ways that could weaken political competition and constrain dissent. The New York Times reported Wednesday that critics have raised concerns over the government’s treatment of opposition figures and activists, as well as changes to the electoral system that they argue could benefit the incumbent administration.
Those concerns add to broader scrutiny of the political environment under Hichilema. Human Rights Watch has separately raised concerns over freedom of expression and the treatment of perceived critics and political opponents.
Political tensions have continued into the final days of the campaign. On Tuesday, the Tonse Alliance accused the government of being behind a law-enforcement raid on its offices in which vehicles, communications equipment and other items were seized. The alliance alleged that the operation was politically motivated and intended to disrupt its campaigning. That allegation has not been independently established.
At the same time, Zambia has a significant history of competitive elections and peaceful transfers of power.
Since the restoration of multiparty politics in 1991, different parties and political alliances have won and lost national power. Hichilema himself came to office through that process, defeating incumbent President Edgar Lungu in 2021 after five previous unsuccessful presidential campaigns.
That history makes the conduct and credibility of Thursday’s vote an important measure of Zambia’s democratic trajectory as well as its economic direction.
Zambia’s Next Development Test
The election brings together several challenges extending well beyond the contest between candidates.
Zambia has made meaningful progress stabilizing an economy that entered sovereign default six years ago. At the same time, poverty remains widespread, household costs remain politically salient and economic risks have not disappeared.
The country is also becoming increasingly important to global demand for copper and other critical minerals, creating opportunities for investment, infrastructure and diversification alongside the familiar risks associated with dependence on extractive industries.
Hichilema is asking voters for another five years to build on the economic reforms of his first term. His opponents are arguing that the gains have not reached enough households and are challenging his administration’s record on political freedoms.
Thursday’s vote will determine which argument resonates more strongly with Zambians — and who will oversee the next phase of the country’s post-default recovery.
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