Key Impact Points:
- Up to 94% of some Asia-Pacific countries’ direct exports to the US are at risk from new tariffs introduced on April 2, 2025.
- Cambodia may see a 13% drop in national output and over 400,000 job losses—70% of them female workers.
- ESCAP urges evidence-based policymaking, digital trade acceleration, and diversification to counter the fallout.
ESCAP Sounds Alarm on Disproportionate Impact of New US Tariffs
The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has warned that the latest US tariff hikes—announced on April 2, 2025—could devastate exports from several Asia-Pacific countries. With a new average tariff rate of 19%, including a baseline of 10% on all goods and rates exceeding 30% for some, ESCAP estimates that up to 94% of certain nations’ exports to the US are at risk.
“The scope and scale of the tariffs announced are higher than many expected, especially those imposed on some of the smallest and least developed countries,” ESCAP noted.
Most Exposed: Developing Countries with Strong US Trade Links
Countries like Fiji, Cambodia, Viet Nam, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China are among the most exposed, due to their high dependency on the US market and roles in global value chains. While Lao PDR and Myanmar also face extreme tariffs—up to 45%—their direct exports to the US remain relatively small.
The complex layering of new tariffs on top of existing MFN duties makes it harder to calculate the real impact, especially for smaller countries lacking technical capacity.
TINA Tool Offers Critical Support for Policy Response
To help governments conduct rapid impact assessments, ESCAP highlighted its Trade Intelligence and Negotiation Adviser (TINA), a tool co-developed with the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). TINA enables product-level analysis and has revealed that many Asia-Pacific economies risk losing 72%–94% of their US-bound exports.
“We are also pilot testing a national TINA in Cambodia and increasingly leveraging AI to make the tool accessible to a wider range of users,” ESCAP stated.
In Cambodia, where the tool is being piloted, simulations show that the new tariffs could reduce national output by 13%. This would translate to job losses exceeding 400,000—more than 70% of them women, largely due to the textile sector’s 45% output drop.
Regional Integration Adds to Indirect Exposure
ESCAP also flagged indirect or “pass-through” risks to countries deeply embedded in regional production networks. Through its upcoming RIVA (Regional Integration and Value Chain Analyzer), ESCAP aims to track these ripple effects across global value chains. Early findings indicate that both advanced and developing countries in the region could experience significant secondary impacts.
Policy Recommendations: Diversify, Digitalize, and Negotiate
ESCAP calls for immediate evidence-based policymaking and enhanced international coordination. Smaller economies should prioritize digital trade transformation through instruments like the UN treaty on cross-border paperless trade, broaden trade in services (especially travel and digital sectors), and pursue new trade and investment partnerships.
“Keeping channels of communication open between countries and with the private sector will remain essential,” ESCAP emphasized.
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