Road to COP30: Five Negotiation Outcomes That Could Reshape Global Finance

When heads of state and negotiators arrive in Belém, Brazil, this November for COP30, the stakes will be unmistakably high. Finance ministers and central bankers will be watching as closely as climate diplomats: what is hammered out in the Amazon will set the tone for how trillions in capital are steered toward — or away from — a low-carbon and climate-resilient future.

Eric Usher, Head of the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), calls this year’s talks “a critical milestone for leaders in the finance sector that are staying the course on their climate commitments and navigating the objective, physical impacts of climate change to explore additional ways to benefit from the transition and the resilience economy.”

National plans that unlock investment

The Paris Agreement’s first Global Stocktake has already forced a reckoning: while projected warming has been brought down from a catastrophic near-4°C pathway to roughly 2.1–2.8°C, it is still far from the 1.5°C target. By 2025, all governments must submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting out actions through 2035.

For financiers, the real test lies in whether these NDCs can become “investable.” That means clear sectoral pathways, credible policy signals, and bankable projects. Without that clarity, private capital will remain cautious, and the scale of investment needed will not materialize.

Mobilizing trillions for developing countries

At COP29 in Baku, governments agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal: at least $300 billion per year for developing countries by 2035, with a stretch ambition of $1.3 trillion. The so-called Baku to Belém Finance Roadmap, co-chaired by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, will outline how scarce public funds can be used to leverage far larger flows of private investment.

UNEP FI is convening a coalition of thousands of public and private institutions to feed into this process. Alongside this, negotiators will grapple with how to finance adaptation and resilience, building on the Global Goal on Adaptation and its newly agreed implementation framework.

Defining what counts as sustainable finance

Sustainable finance has outgrown its early ESG phase. Today, national and regional taxonomies provide a shared language for what qualifies as a “sustainable” investment. These systems accelerate transactions, boost investor confidence, and are beginning to cover not just mitigation but biodiversity and adaptation.

Interoperability between taxonomies is the next frontier. Progress in Belém could ease cross-border capital flows and give substance to Paris Agreement Article 2.1(c), which calls for aligning all finance with low-emission, climate-resilient pathways.

Final rules for a UN-backed carbon market

Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is poised to establish the first regulated, UN-supervised global carbon market. Unlike today’s voluntary schemes, this mechanism would provide verified credits with a consistent quality standard.

For financial institutions, the implications are manifold: financing credit-generating projects, buying credits for transition targets, or insuring transactions. At COP30, negotiators are expected to finalize rules on “additionality,” aggressive baselines, credit quality maintenance, and accounting for unintended emissions leakage — the last hurdles before the market opens.

Ensuring a fair and inclusive transition

The energy transition will only be durable if it is just. In June, governments advanced the Just Transition Work Programme. In Belém, they will consider creating a Belém Action Mechanism for Just Transition — a UNFCCC framework designed to ensure workers, vulnerable communities, and high-carbon regions are not stranded.

For investors and companies, this means integrating social considerations into transition strategies: worker retraining, regional diversification, and measurable indicators of inclusivity.

The takeaway for policymakers and finance leaders

The finance sector will not be a bystander in Belém. The outcomes of COP30 will directly influence market stability, capital allocation, and the credibility of climate strategies. From investable NDCs to a global carbon market and a new mechanism for just transitions, the negotiations in Brazil could redefine both the risks and the opportunities facing global finance.

For ministers, regulators, and investors alike, the Amazon summit is not just about climate policy — it is about the future rules of the financial system itself.

Related Content: Transforming Belem for COP30