NEW YORK — The first informal vote in the contest to select the next United Nations Secretary-General has revealed a closely contested field, with the two highest-performing candidates separated by one vote and no contender yet demonstrating clear support across the Security Council.
In the closed-door straw poll held Thursday, the Council’s 15 members were asked whether they would “encourage,” “discourage” or express “no opinion” on each of the seven candidates seeking to succeed António Guterres.
According to diplomats briefed on the confidential vote, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan received 10 encourage votes, followed by Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett with nine. Argentina’s Rafael Grossi received seven, while Michelle Bachelet of Chile and Macky Sall of Senegal each received six. María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador received five, and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu received two.
The results provide an initial measure of support but do not determine the outcome. Multiple polling rounds are expected, additional candidates may still enter the contest, and the first ballot did not disclose whether any discourage votes came from one of the five permanent Security Council members.
The Full Results
Rebeca Grynspan, Costa Rica: 10 encourage, one discourage and four no opinion.
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana: Nine encourage, two discourage and four no opinion.
Rafael Grossi, Argentina: Seven encourage, two discourage and six no opinion.
Michelle Bachelet, Chile: Six encourage, five discourage and four no opinion.
Macky Sall, Senegal: Six encourage, seven discourage and two no opinion.
María Fernanda Espinosa, Ecuador: Five encourage, two discourage and eight no opinion.
Olara Otunnu, Uganda: Two encourage, five discourage and eight no opinion.
The figures show different combinations of support, opposition and uncertainty. Espinosa, for example, received fewer encourage votes than several candidates but only two discourage votes, while Sall received six encourage votes alongside seven discourage votes.
A diplomat quoted by Reuters characterized the first ballot as showing “no consensus” around any single candidate—an assessment reflected in both the narrow gap at the top and the number of no-opinion ballots across the field.
How the UN Selects Its Secretary-General
The UN Charter provides the basic legal framework. Under Article 97, the Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly following a recommendation from the Security Council.
The process began formally when the presidents of the General Assembly and Security Council invited member states to submit nominations. Candidates presented vision statements and participated in public dialogues before the selection moved into the Security Council’s closed-door phase.
Straw polls are an informal Council practice rather than a procedure required by the Charter. They allow the 15 members to test candidates’ levels of support and opposition before moving toward a formal decision.
In the early rounds, all Council members use identical ballots. Candidates can therefore see how many encourage, discourage and no-opinion votes they received, but cannot determine whether opposition came from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States—the Council’s five permanent members.
At a later stage, permanent members are expected to use differently colored ballots. This can reveal whether a candidate has received a discourage vote from a veto-holding country. Such a ballot is not itself a formal veto, but it signals that the candidate could be blocked when the Council votes on its recommendation.
The Council must ultimately adopt a resolution recommending one candidate. That requires at least nine votes in favor and no negative vote from a permanent member. The recommendation then goes to the 193-member General Assembly, which has historically approved the Council’s sole nominee.
Why the Highest Vote Total May Not Decide the Race
The selection is not a conventional election in which the candidate with the most votes automatically wins.
A candidate who leads an early straw poll could still be blocked by one permanent member. A candidate with fewer encourage votes but limited firm opposition could gain support as negotiations continue, further ballots are held and some contenders withdraw.
The decisive consideration is therefore not only how much support a candidate receives, but whether that candidate can secure at least nine Council votes while remaining acceptable to all five veto-holding powers.
Regional and gender considerations may also shape the political debate. Latin America and the Caribbean have not produced a Secretary-General since Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar left office in 1991, although geographic rotation is a convention rather than a binding rule.
The UN has also never appointed a woman as Secretary-General. Four of the seven candidates in the first straw poll are women: Grynspan, Rodrigues-Birkett, Bachelet and Espinosa.
Rebeca Grynspan: Development and Economic Diplomacy
Grynspan is an economist, former vice president of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of UN Trade and Development, formerly known as UNCTAD.
Her career has included senior roles across the UN system and international development institutions, with experience in economic policy, development finance, trade and multilateral diplomacy. She temporarily stepped back from her UNCTAD duties during the campaign to avoid potential conflicts of interest.
She received 10 encourage votes, one discourage vote and four no-opinion ballots.
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett: Caribbean Diplomacy and UN Experience
Rodrigues-Birkett has served as Guyana’s permanent representative to the United Nations since 2020 and previously served as the country’s foreign minister.
She was the first woman and the highest-ranking Indigenous person to serve as Guyana’s foreign minister and has also held senior positions with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Her campaign has emphasized conflict prevention, climate action and institutional effectiveness.
She received nine encourage votes, two discourage votes and four no-opinion ballots.
Rafael Grossi: Nuclear Diplomacy and Crisis Management
Grossi is an Argentine career diplomat who has led the International Atomic Energy Agency since 2019.
His tenure has placed him at the center of negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program and nuclear safety during the war in Ukraine. Under his leadership, the IAEA established a continuing presence at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
He received seven encourage votes, two discourage votes and six no-opinion ballots.
Michelle Bachelet: Executive Leadership and Human Rights
Bachelet served twice as president of Chile and later as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. She was also the first executive director of UN Women.
Her candidacy is supported by Brazil and Mexico. Chile withdrew its backing following a change in national leadership, but Bachelet remained in the contest.
She received six encourage votes, five discourage votes and four no-opinion ballots.
Macky Sall: Government Leadership and Institutional Reform
Sall served as president of Senegal from 2012 to 2024 and chaired the African Union in 2022.
His campaign has emphasized the debt burdens facing developing countries and reform of the Security Council to strengthen representation for developing regions. He was nominated by Burundi.
He received six encourage votes, seven discourage votes and two no-opinion ballots.
María Fernanda Espinosa: Multilateral and Environmental Diplomacy
Espinosa has served as Ecuador’s foreign minister, defense minister and representative to the United Nations. She was president of the UN General Assembly from 2018 to 2019.
Her career has also included work on biodiversity, climate change and Indigenous peoples’ issues. She was nominated by Antigua and Barbuda.
She received five encourage votes, two discourage votes and eight no-opinion ballots.
Olara Otunnu: Conflict Prevention and UN Leadership
Otunnu is a former Ugandan foreign minister, UN under-secretary-general and special representative for children and armed conflict.
His campaign has emphasized conflict resolution, institutional reform, governance of artificial intelligence and climate policies that account for countries’ development needs. He entered the contest shortly before the first straw poll.
He received two encourage votes, five discourage votes and eight no-opinion ballots.
A Contest Still Taking Shape
The first ballot provides an early indication of the candidates’ standing but does not establish a reliable ranking of who is most likely to be selected.
The one-vote difference between Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett is narrow, while the no-opinion ballots recorded across the field suggest that several Council members have not yet expressed clear support or opposition toward some candidates.
Diplomats expect polling to continue into the coming months, with the most consequential stage arriving when the positions of the five permanent members become clearer.
The next Secretary-General will begin a five-year term on January 1, 2027. The outcome will ultimately depend on which candidate can move beyond an initial showing of support and become acceptable to every veto-holding power.
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