Addis Ababa has told UN Security Council members that Eritrean forces are advancing into Tigray, deepening fears of a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea that could draw in the wider Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia accused Eritrea of an “all-out invasion” in a letter shared with Reuters on Friday, amid reports of Eritrean troop movements and renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia that have revived fears of war between the two neighbours.
Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos said Eritrean forces had advanced up to 60 kilometres into Tigray. An Ethiopian official said the letter was sent to UN Security Council members. Eritrea’s information minister accused Ethiopia of fabricating allegations to justify aggression. The claimed extent of the advance has not been independently established.
Reports of troop movements and drone strikes
The accusation follows witness accounts of Eritrean soldiers moving through Adigrat in northern Ethiopia on Wednesday. Two residents told Reuters they saw trucks carrying dozens of soldiers. Eritrea disputed the reports. The witness accounts do not establish the full scale or purpose of the reported deployment.
Conflict monitor ACLED reported drone strikes targeting Eritrean troops and attributed them to Ethiopia’s military. The Associated Press said it could not independently verify the account.
The reports follow the severing of diplomatic relations between the neighbours. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats last week; Eritrea then severed relations. The rupture reverses the 2018 peace deal that formally ended the border war Ethiopia and Eritrea fought from 1998 to 2000.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s federal forces are fighting a seven-group rebel alliance that includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, and seeks to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise restraint.
Federal police patrol Mekelle after rebel withdrawal
Federal police were patrolling Mekelle on Friday after government-allied fighters entered the Tigrayan capital following the TPLF’s withdrawal. Local government offices remained closed, and no new administration had taken office by Friday morning.
Tigray’s television and radio stations were off air. The government promised to restore banking, electricity, telecommunications, and water services without providing a timetable.
Fighting has continued elsewhere in the region. Earlier this week, a humanitarian bulletin reported at least 17 deaths in airstrikes northwest of Mekelle. Reuters could not independently confirm the reports, and the bulletin did not identify who carried out the strikes.
Red Sea access and Nile water disputes
The deterioration in relations also involves Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea. Abiy reiterated on Monday that his landlocked country needs a maritime outlet, while presenting negotiations as the route to securing one. Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea became independent in 1993, after a three-decade war of independence.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the armed opposition, allegations all three deny.
Relations with Egypt and Sudan are also affected by the longstanding dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Representatives of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia met on Oct. 4 and asserted that Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states. They also rejected actions affecting Egyptian and Sudanese use of Nile waters.
Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said discussions of the Red Sea and Nile must account for Ethiopia’s geographic position and interests, while reiterating its commitment to dialogue with neighbouring countries.
Averting war between Ethiopia and Eritrea
The European Union warned on Oct. 5 that escalating violence could trigger a broader Horn of Africa conflict. It called for immediate de-escalation, civilian protection, unhindered humanitarian access, and full implementation of the 2022 cessation-of-hostilities agreement under the African Union framework.
The EU also urged external actors to avoid interference and respect sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The next phase will turn on whether reported cross-border military activity continues, whether diplomatic contacts resume, and whether humanitarian agencies can reach affected communities. With the scale of the reported Eritrean deployment still unclear, developments on those fronts will help determine whether the fighting remains concentrated in northern Ethiopia or widens into a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea with consequences across the Horn of Africa.
