President Donald Trump has suggested the United States could maintain a presence in Iran tied to the country’s oil resources, explicitly comparing the possibility to Washington’s expanding energy relationship with Venezuela as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global oil supply and keep crude prices above $100 a barrel.
Speaking in Ireland over the weekend, Trump raised the prospect that the United States could remain in Iran and gain access to its oil following an eventual settlement, pointing to Venezuela as a possible model. He also predicted the conflict could end relatively soon and that gasoline prices would fall sharply afterward.
The remarks place energy more squarely at the center of Trump’s public framing of the conflict, just as disruptions across the Gulf are beginning to reverberate through oil markets, inflation and government budgets worldwide.
Global Oil Supply Under Pressure
Global oil production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day in August to 100.1 million barrels per day, while more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production remained offline, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA now expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, with a full recovery in Middle Eastern production pushed into 2027. Global inventories have fallen by roughly 507 million barrels since February, including a 95 million-barrel draw in August alone.
Much of the pressure is concentrated around the region’s export infrastructure.
The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, while attacks on alternative routes have reduced the ability of producers to bypass the chokepoint. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which had been carrying roughly 4 million barrels per day toward the Red Sea, was taken offline following drone attacks. A prolonged outage could put supplies equivalent to around 4 percent of global oil consumption at risk.
That leaves global oil supply increasingly tied to the course of the conflict and the prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
Venezuela Becomes the Reference Point
It is in that context that Trump has invoked Venezuela.
Washington is pursuing a significantly expanded energy relationship with Caracas, with access to oil resources forming part of a broader strategic and economic reset. Trump’s comparison suggests he may see energy access as part of the eventual economic settlement with Iran as well.
But Iran presents a far more complicated proposition.
Any arrangement involving sustained foreign access to Iranian energy assets would depend on the outcome of the conflict and raise major questions over sovereignty, sanctions, regional security and the terms of any political settlement.
For now, Trump’s comments remain a proposal rather than an announced U.S. policy or negotiated agreement with Tehran.
Iran has also linked a full reopening of Hormuz to concessions from Washington, including changes to restrictions affecting Iranian oil exports. Energy is therefore becoming not only a market issue, but part of the broader diplomatic endgame.
The Venezuela analogy is best understood as a signal of how Trump may be thinking about the conflict’s aftermath, rather than as a clear blueprint for what comes next in Iran.
The Shock Is Spreading Beyond Oil
The consequences are already moving beyond crude prices.
The IEA now expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, nearly 1 million barrels per day more than it forecast a month earlier, as elevated prices, supply disruptions and shortages of refined products weigh on consumption.
Diesel has become a particular pressure point. Gulf exports of diesel and gasoil have fallen sharply, while attacks on Russian refining infrastructure are simultaneously constraining another major source of global fuel supply.
That matters because diesel is embedded throughout the real economy, from trucking and agriculture to construction and manufacturing.
The World Bank has warned that prolonged energy shocks can spread through higher transportation, food and fertilizer costs before feeding into broader inflation and borrowing pressures.
For central banks, that creates a difficult combination: weaker growth alongside renewed price pressure.
A Growing Challenge for Energy-Importing Economies
The burden is also uneven.
Higher oil, fuel and fertilizer prices tend to hit hardest in economies with limited fiscal space and heavy dependence on imported energy, where governments can face rising subsidy bills, pressure on foreign-exchange reserves and higher food and transportation costs.
Earlier this year, the IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO jointly warned that elevated energy and fertilizer prices were disproportionately affecting vulnerable economies.
The World Bank has also projected a sharp rise in energy prices in 2026, reinforcing concerns that the Middle East conflict could evolve into a broader commodity shock.
Energy Moves to the Center of the Endgame
Trump’s remarks suggest he sees Venezuela as a possible model for linking energy access to broader U.S. economic and strategic objectives.
Whether anything comparable could emerge in Iran remains highly uncertain.
For the global economy, the more immediate question is whether diplomacy can restore secure flows through Hormuz, stabilize Gulf production and reduce threats to alternative routes through the Red Sea.
Until that happens, the conflict will remain difficult to contain economically.
What began as a geopolitical and military confrontation is now affecting commodity markets, inflation, monetary policy, food security and sovereign finances, making the restoration of secure Gulf energy flows an increasingly important part of the conflict’s global endgame.
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