With an 80% chance of developing by September and a 90% likelihood of persisting through November, a new El Niño event is raising concerns about intensifying heatwaves, droughts, floods, and food insecurity around the world.
The United Nations is warning that the world may be on the verge of another powerful El Niño event—one that could amplify the impacts of climate change and push global temperatures even higher over the coming months.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and September 2026 and a 90% chance they will persist through the end of the year. The agency says the event is expected to be at least moderate in strength and could become strong, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather across multiple continents.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While it occurs every few years as part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, its impacts are increasingly unfolding against a backdrop of human-caused climate change, creating what scientists describe as a dangerous compounding effect.
“The return of El Niño will add fuel to the fire of a warming world,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned, emphasizing that every fraction of a degree of warming translates into greater risks for people, economies, and ecosystems worldwide.
A Climate Multiplier
The warning comes just days after the WMO reported that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 is highly likely to surpass the current global temperature record. Scientists increasingly believe that the combination of greenhouse gas emissions and a strengthening El Niño could make 2027 one of the hottest years ever recorded.
Recent observations show unusually warm subsurface waters across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6°C (10.8°F) above average in some locations—a signal that forecasters view as a precursor to El Niño development.
While El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon, its impacts are no longer occurring in a stable climate system. Global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F) above pre-industrial levels, meaning future El Niño events are likely to produce more severe consequences than similar events in previous decades.
Winners, Losers, and Frontline Communities
El Niño reshapes weather patterns across much of the planet, often producing dramatically different outcomes depending on geography.
Historically, El Niño has brought heavier rainfall and flooding to parts of South America, East Africa, and portions of North America, while increasing drought risk across Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. It can also disrupt monsoon systems, reduce agricultural productivity, alter fisheries, and increase the likelihood of wildfires and water shortages.
In India, forecasters are already warning that developing El Niño conditions could contribute to the country’s weakest monsoon season in more than a decade, raising concerns for agriculture and food production in one of the world’s most populous nations.
Scientists also warn that warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures may contribute to stronger tropical cyclones and hurricanes in some regions while increasing marine heat stress on coral reefs and coastal ecosystems.
For Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other climate-vulnerable nations, the emerging El Niño presents another layer of risk atop rising sea levels, warming oceans, and increasingly volatile weather patterns.
A Test of Global Preparedness
The UN is urging governments to strengthen early warning systems, disaster preparedness measures, and climate resilience investments before the full impacts of El Niño emerge.
The warning reinforces a broader message that has become increasingly central to international climate discussions: adaptation is no longer optional.
The previous El Niño event of 2023–2024 ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed significantly to the unprecedented global heat that followed. As the world enters what could be another period of elevated climate volatility, governments are being urged to prepare for cascading impacts on food systems, water security, public health, infrastructure, and economic stability.
For policymakers, the return of El Niño serves as a reminder that climate risks are no longer distant projections. They are increasingly arriving in real time—and interacting with a warming planet in ways that challenge the resilience of societies around the world.
As governments prepare for the next round of climate negotiations and implementation of national adaptation plans, the emerging El Niño may become one of the first major global tests of climate preparedness in the second half of this decade.
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