COP29 set the target. COP30 produced the roadmap. As governments turn toward COP31 in Türkiye, the unresolved challenge is how to turn a $1.3 trillion climate-finance ambition into capital that actually flows.
At COP29 in Baku, governments agreed that developed countries would take the lead in mobilizing at least $300 billion annually by 2035, while all actors would work to scale public and private climate finance for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
COP30 in Belém moved the discussion toward implementation through the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to 1.3T, which outlined pathways to expand concessional finance, address debt, lower the cost of capital and mobilize private investment.
But Belém did not resolve the central question: who will implement the roadmap, through which institutions, and how progress will be measured?
A new analysis from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) argues that the changing geopolitical environment is making delivery harder as aid budgets contract, fiscal pressures rise and private capital remains difficult to mobilize at scale in many developing economies.
That leaves COP31 in Antalya increasingly positioned as an implementation test.
A tougher financial environment
The $1.3 trillion ambition is being pursued as traditional development finance contracts.
The OECD reported that official development assistance fell 23.3% in 2025, the largest annual decline on record, after falling 8.5% in 2024. It projects another 6.9% decline in 2026.
Meanwhile, the IMF reported that global public debt rose to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025 and could reach 100% by 2029, as governments confront competing demands including defense, social spending and higher interest costs.
Developing countries face their own squeeze. The UN’s 2026 Financing for Sustainable Development Report found that external debt-service burdens in developing countries and small island developing states reached 20-year highs in 2024.
That makes simply adding more sovereign debt an increasingly difficult route to closing the climate-finance gap.
The challenge is getting the right capital to the right places
Reaching $1.3 trillion will require significantly more private investment — but private capital cannot substitute for public and concessional finance everywhere.
Adaptation projects such as coastal protection, drought resilience and early-warning systems can generate major economic benefits without producing the predictable revenues required by commercial investors.
That makes grants and concessional finance particularly important for least-developed countries, small island states and other vulnerable economies.
For commercially viable investments, the problem is different. Currency risk, sovereign credit ratings, political uncertainty and high financing costs can prevent capital from reaching otherwise viable projects.
Guarantees, blended finance, foreign-exchange protection and local-currency financing can help bridge that gap.
For governments, the challenge is therefore not simply mobilizing more money. It is matching the right form of capital to the right countries and investments.
Development banks move to the center
Multilateral development banks are increasingly central to that effort.
MDBs committed a record $162.5 billion in climate finance in 2025, including about $103 billion for low- and middle-income economies. But even record MDB financing represents only a fraction of the broader $1.3 trillion ambition.
The focus is therefore shifting toward how effectively development banks can use their balance sheets to mobilize additional capital.
The International Finance Corporation recently secured a $6 billion insurance arrangement with 19 global insurers, potentially supporting around $10 billion in additional lending. IFC is also packaging emerging-market loans into securities for institutional investors.
The Inter-American Development Bank’s ReInvest+ initiative similarly aims to make large pools of Latin American loans more accessible to global investors.
These initiatives point toward an expanding role for development banks — not only as lenders, but as guarantors and risk-sharing partners capable of connecting developing economies with global capital markets.
COP31 inherits the implementation challenge
The diplomatic progression is increasingly clear.
COP29 established the ambition. COP30 produced the roadmap. COP31 will be judged on whether implementation begins to take shape.
Many of the decisions required to reach $1.3 trillion cannot be made within climate negotiations alone.
Debt policy, development-bank capital rules, foreign-exchange risk and financial regulation involve finance ministries, central banks, the IMF, World Bank, G20 and private financial institutions.
The road to Antalya therefore runs as much through finance ministries and development banks as through climate ministries and negotiating rooms.
What governments should watch
Five issues will be particularly important heading toward COP31:
MDB leverage: Whether development banks expand guarantees, risk-sharing instruments and private-capital mobilization.
Debt and cost of capital: Whether vulnerable countries can access more climate finance without worsening already elevated debt burdens.
Adaptation finance: Whether sufficient grants and concessional resources reach investments that cannot attract commercial capital.
Private-capital mobilization: Whether currency, regulatory and political risks can be reduced enough to make more emerging-market climate projects investable.
Institutional coordination: Whether the UN climate process, G20, MDBs and other financial institutions can turn the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap into coordinated implementation.
From climate diplomacy to financial diplomacy
The $1.3 trillion ambition was never a commitment for developed-country governments to provide that amount directly. The COP29 framework envisages public and private finance, while retaining developed countries’ leadership under the separate $300 billion goal.
COP30 helped define a pathway. It did not ensure that the money will materialize.
That is the challenge moving toward COP31.
For governments, the strategic shift is from setting the financing ambition to building the mechanisms capable of delivering it — and ensuring that countries least able to compete for global investment are not left behind.
COP29 set the ambition. COP30 built the roadmap. COP31 will begin to show whether the world can deliver.
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