UNITED NATIONS — The race to become the next United Nations Secretary-General has a new entrant.
Ivonne A-Baki, the veteran Ecuadorian diplomat nominated by the Kingdom of Tonga, has become the eighth candidate seeking to succeed António Guterres, adding a prominent new voice to a contest that remains unsettled after its first Security Council straw poll.
Baki’s arrival is significant not simply because it expands the field. She enters with decades of diplomatic experience, a call for institutional reform and a message centered on conflict prevention at a moment when the UN is struggling with wars, geopolitical division and growing questions about its effectiveness.
Her candidacy also comes just before the Security Council conducts its second informal straw poll today, August 21, offering the first indication of how Council members view her relative to the seven candidates already tested in the opening round.
Baki Enters With a Reform Agenda
The Kingdom of Tonga formally nominated Baki on August 17, and she appeared before UN member states on Thursday for the interactive dialogue that forms part of the Secretary-General selection process.
She used the appearance to argue for a more politically engaged Secretary-General and a more representative United Nations.
Baki called for an overhaul of the Security Council, arguing that its structure has failed to keep pace with changes in the international system since 1945. She highlighted Africa’s lack of a permanent seat despite its growing share of the world’s population and argued that the imbalance contributes to repeated Council paralysis.
She also placed conflict prevention at the center of her candidacy.
Drawing on her experience living through Lebanon’s civil war, Baki pledged to use the Secretary-General’s diplomatic authority directly, including by traveling to conflict zones and engaging parties on the ground rather than operating primarily from New York.
Her message is effectively that the Secretary-General should exercise a more active mediating role at a time when divisions among major powers have frequently constrained the Security Council.
Ivonne A-Baki also criticized the limited role women continue to play in major peace negotiations, citing diplomatic efforts surrounding Ukraine and Gaza.
The Kingdom of Tonga’s Growing Diplomatic Role
Baki’s nomination also underscores the outsized diplomatic role being carved out by the Kingdom of Tonga under Prime Minister Lord Fatafehi Fakafanua, a longtime parliamentary leader and former Speaker who has increasingly positioned the small island kingdom as a bridge-builder in international diplomacy.
Fakafanua first entered Parliament in 2008 and served multiple terms as Speaker before becoming Prime Minister, giving him more than a decade at the center of the Kingdom’s parliamentary leadership. The Kingdom of Tonga’s decision to nominate Baki adds to a broader pattern of small states using strategic diplomacy to exert influence well beyond their size.
A Long Diplomatic Record
Ivonne A-Baki brings an extensive diplomatic résumé to the contest.
She has served as Ecuador’s ambassador to the United States, France and Qatar, held government ministerial positions and participated in diplomacy surrounding the 1998 peace agreement between Ecuador and Peru.
Her candidacy creates an unusual dynamic in the race: two Ecuadorian nationals are now competing, but neither was nominated by Ecuador.
Former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister and UN General Assembly President María Fernanda Espinosa was nominated by Antigua and Barbuda. Baki was put forward by the Kingdom of Tonga.
The field now stands at eight: Baki, Michelle Bachelet, María Fernanda Espinosa, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, Olara Otunnu, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Macky Sall.
Five of the eight are women, reinforcing a longstanding push among member states for the UN to appoint its first female Secretary-General.
Other candidates could still enter the race.
The Washington Question
Baki’s relationships could prove as consequential as her policy platform.
She has said publicly that her candidacy has Washington’s support and has acknowledged friendships with U.S. President Donald Trump and former President Bill Clinton.
The United States, however, has not publicly confirmed that it is backing her candidacy.
That distinction matters.
Any candidate ultimately needs at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council and must avoid a veto from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States.
Baki’s claim of U.S. support will therefore be watched closely by other capitals as the selection process advances, particularly once later rounds begin to expose whether opposition comes from permanent members.
Today’s Poll Gives Baki Her First Test
The Security Council holds its second informal straw poll today.
Council members indicate whether they “encourage,” “discourage” or have “no opinion” on each candidate. Early ballots do not reveal whether discourage votes come from permanent members, making them useful measures of momentum but not definitive tests of viability.
For Ivonne A-Baki, today’s vote is particularly important because she did not participate in the first round.
A strong initial showing could immediately complicate a race that had begun to develop a recognizable hierarchy. A weaker result would suggest that the contest remains centered on candidates who established support before her entry.
What Happened in the First Poll
The first Security Council straw poll, held July 30, produced an early leader but no consensus.
Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan finished first with 10 encourage votes, one discourage and four no-opinion votes.
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett followed with nine encourage votes, while Argentina’s Rafael Grossi received seven.
Michelle Bachelet of Chile and former Senegalese President Macky Sall each received six encourage votes. María Fernanda Espinosa received five, while Uganda’s Olara Otunnu received two.
Every candidate received at least one discourage vote.
The result gave Grynspan the early advantage, but it did not establish a consensus candidate.
The early ballots also do not show whether a discourage vote comes from one of the five permanent members, a distinction that becomes critical later in the process.
A New Variable in an Unsettled Race
Baki’s entrance therefore comes at a consequential moment.
The first ballot established an initial hierarchy. Today’s second poll begins to test whether those positions are durable or whether an eighth candidate can reshape the field.
Her campaign also puts several issues directly into the contest: Security Council reform, African representation, preventive diplomacy and the degree to which the Secretary-General should act as an active political mediator.
For governments watching the succession process, the immediate question is no longer simply whether Grynspan can preserve her early lead.
It is whether Ivonne A-Baki can turn a late entry, a long diplomatic record and a distinct reform message into meaningful Security Council support.
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