LUSAKA – Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has won a second five-year term with 61.4% of the vote, securing a decisive victory after an election that tested whether the country’s improving economic fundamentals are translating into better living standards for ordinary Zambians.
President Hakainde Hichilema received 2,965,326 votes in the August 13 election, compared with 1,856,217 for his principal challenger, Brian Mundubile, according to results announced by the Electoral Commission of Zambia.
The result gives President Hakainde Hichilema another five years to build on Zambia’s recovery from its 2020 sovereign debt default and pursue an ambitious expansion of the country’s copper industry. But the campaign also exposed persistent concerns over the cost of living, the distribution of mineral wealth and the country’s democratic trajectory.
A Decisive Win, but an Economic Warning
President Hakainde Hichilema came to power in 2021 promising to stabilize an economy burdened by debt and rebuild confidence among international lenders and investors.
His government subsequently advanced a complex debt restructuring, restored access to international financial support and attracted new investment commitments in Zambia’s mining sector. The World Bank estimates that public debt declined from 133.4% of GDP in 2023 to 93.4% in 2025 as agreements covering roughly 94% of Zambia’s external debt were implemented.
Yet the election demonstrated the political limits of macroeconomic stabilization.
Reuters reported that Mundubile performed more strongly than expected by focusing on household economic pressures and arguing that Zambia’s improving headline indicators had not translated sufficiently into gains for ordinary citizens.
The Financial Times similarly framed the election around a central question: whether Zambia’s expanding copper economy is producing broadly shared prosperity. It reported that more than 70% of the country’s roughly 22 million people live on less than $3 a day despite rising mining investment and improved macroeconomic conditions.
That gap between national economic recovery and household experience is likely to remain one of the defining political challenges of Hichilema’s second term.
Copper Moves to the Center of Zambia’s Strategy
Zambia’s international importance is rising as governments and companies compete for access to the minerals needed for power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and advanced technologies.
Hichilema’s government is targeting 3 million metric tons of annual copper production by 2031, a major increase from current levels. The administration is seeking to use that expansion to strengthen exports, employment, industrial development and government revenues.
His reelection provides investors with greater policy continuity, but Reuters reported that mining companies and markets will now be looking for faster implementation of investment commitments and stronger economic growth.
The stakes extend beyond Zambia.
The country has become increasingly important in the strategic competition between China and the United States over critical-mineral supply chains. China remains deeply embedded in Zambia’s mining sector, while Washington has sought to expand its role through infrastructure, financing and efforts to diversify mineral-export routes.
That competition could give Lusaka greater diplomatic and economic leverage if it can attract capital from multiple partners while ensuring that a larger share of the value generated from its resources remains within the domestic economy.
From Stabilization to Growth
Economic stabilization was a central priority of Hichilema’s first term. His second will be judged more heavily on whether that stabilization produces stronger growth, employment and household incomes.
The IMF in May lowered its forecast for Zambia’s 2026 economic growth to 4.3%, citing weaker mining output, energy constraints, softer trade and external pressures.
Energy remains a particularly important constraint.
Zambia relies heavily on hydropower, leaving mines, businesses and households vulnerable to drought and climate variability. Recent electricity shortages have constrained copper production and highlighted how closely the country’s industrial ambitions are tied to energy security.
Another early test will be Zambia’s relationship with the IMF following the conclusion of its previous $1.7 billion program in January. Negotiations over a successor arrangement will unfold as the government seeks to preserve fiscal credibility while increasing investment and addressing domestic economic pressures.
Electoral Tensions Put Governance Under Scrutiny
Hichilema’s margin of victory was clear, but the wider electoral process drew criticism.
Vote counting was temporarily suspended after attacks on election officials and the theft of ballot papers. Authorities also arrested 11 people, including senior opposition figures, during an operation involving gunfire.
Mundubile alleged possible interference with election results and called for an independent investigation. The government rejected the accusations.
The European Union Election Observation Mission described the campaign as competitive but said it took place within a “constrained democratic space” and on an uneven playing field. Its preliminary assessment cited restrictions affecting fundamental freedoms, incumbency advantages and concerns over aspects of the electoral framework.
The mission also reported that counting at the polling stations it observed was transparent, while noting that its final assessment would depend on the completion of tabulation and the handling of post-election complaints and appeals.
President Hakainde Hichilema has rejected accusations that his administration is suppressing political dissent. How the government manages opposition activity, electoral challenges and civil-society criticism will remain an important measure of Zambia’s political direction during his second term.
What Governments Should Watch
Critical-mineral diplomacy: Zambia’s copper resources are increasing its strategic relevance to the United States, China and other major economies seeking more resilient mineral supply chains.
Debt and fiscal policy: With much of the immediate restructuring work completed, governments and development partners will be watching whether Lusaka can preserve fiscal discipline while financing infrastructure and social priorities.
Energy security: Zambia’s mining ambitions depend on a more reliable power system. Drought-related hydropower shortages could increasingly shape both economic policy and regional energy cooperation.
Domestic value creation: The government’s ability to move beyond raw mineral exports toward processing, manufacturing and local supply chains will be central to whether the copper expansion produces broader development gains.
Democratic governance: The handling of opposition parties, civil society and post-election complaints will influence Zambia’s diplomatic standing and relationships with democratic partners.
What Investors Should Watch
Copper production: The key commercial question is whether Zambia can turn announced investment commitments into sustained output growth toward its 3-million-ton target.
Power availability: Electricity shortages remain a direct operational risk for miners and other energy-intensive industries.
Policy continuity: Hichilema’s reelection reduces near-term political uncertainty, but investors will be watching tax policy, licensing, regulatory implementation and the pace of mining-sector reforms.
IMF negotiations: A successor IMF arrangement could influence fiscal stability, currency confidence and Zambia’s broader investment climate.
Consumer and political pressures: Persistent cost-of-living concerns could increase pressure on the government to deliver more visible domestic benefits from mining growth, including jobs, wages and local procurement.
From Recovery to Delivery
Hichilema’s reelection gives Zambia political continuity at a moment when its mineral resources are becoming more strategically important to the global economy.
But the second-term challenge is different from the first.
Zambia has made progress in restructuring its sovereign debt and attracting renewed investor interest. The next test is whether it can turn that momentum into a more durable development model, one that combines mineral investment with reliable energy, domestic value creation, employment and stronger living standards.
For foreign governments, Zambia is increasingly important as a critical-mineral and geopolitical partner.
For investors, the opportunity is tied to whether policy continuity, infrastructure and energy supply can keep pace with the country’s copper ambitions.
For President Hakainde Hichilema, the political durability of both may depend on whether rising mineral investment translates into broader gains across the Zambian economy.
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